Fiona Mullen on the Cyprus question amid growing geopolitical uncertainty

Fiona Mullen, director of the Nicosia-based Sapienta Economics, on uncertainty around the future of the decades-long Cyprus divide amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty and regional competition

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Until now we haven't devoted an episode to any aspect of the Cyprus issue. Can you start by giving a summary of the last few decades, including how the problem emerged and where the key players stand today?

One of the issues about the Cyprus problem is that actually there isn't an agreement on when it started. If you are Turkish Cypriot, it started in 1963. The Republic of Cyprus was founded in 1960 under a constitution that was supposed to be a power-sharing constitution. Then in 1963, the president at the time, Archbishop Makarios, presented what were called “Thirteen Points” to try and change the constitution. The Greek-Cypriot narrative is that they did this because the Turkish-Cypriots were refusing to cooperate. The Turkish-Cypriot narrative is that they did it because they wanted to grab power. But anyway it led to essentially a breakdown of relations. There was fighting in 1963 and there was fighting again in 1967. If I remember correctly, Turkey was potentially going to intervene in 1967 but the Americans stopped them. Fast-forward to 1974 and Greece had a military junta that instigated a coup against Archbishop Makarios in July 1974. There are three guarantor powers under the Republic of Cyprus constitution. So Turkey, citing its rights of intervention under the constitution, intervened in what the Turkish Cypriots call a “peace operation” and what the Greek Cypriots call an “invasion”. The idea under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee was that they were supposed to restore the constitutional state of affairs. But of course Turkey never left and now, decades later, there are still anywhere between 25,000 and 40,000 Turkish troops stationed in northern Cyprus.

Of course, the fact that they came led to a massive displacement. Because in the 1950s and 60s Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots lived kind of dotted together. There wasn't any division of where they lived. But in the 60s the Turkish Cypriots ended up in enclaves. Depending on who you talk to, there is disagreement on whether they went there voluntarily or whether they were pushed there by the Greek Cypriots. Either way, the Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots were not living much together by the time 1974 happened. And then there was a mass displacement: Essentially all the Greek Cypriots came south, apart from a very small number, and all the Turkish Cypriots moved north. hat was a kind of stalemate for a very long time. You couldn't even cross if you were a Greek Cypriot or a Turkish Cypriot. You could if you were a Maronite or a foreigner, but essentially most Cypriots were unable to cross to the other side and people had to leave their ancestral homes.

There have been lots of UN-led attempts to solve the Cyprus problem. The biggest one was in 2004. The Republic of Cyprus was about to join the EU and there was a big effort to try and stick the country back together again, under what was called the Annan Plan. There was a referendum and the Greek Cypriot president in the south campaigned against it. So 76% of Greek Cypriots voted “no” and 65% of Turkish Cypriots voted “yes”. Essentially what happened in the end was a divided island entering the EU and lots of complications. That was 2004.

The next big effort started in 2008. That was when I was personally closely involved. It culminated in 2017 in the Swiss resort of Crans-Montana. There wasn't a referendum this time; we didn't get that far. It all crashed. The Greek Cypriots blamed Turkey. The Turkish Cypriots blamed the Greek Cypriots, etc. And we've had a stalemate ever since. There have been no official talks since then. But recently UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres made another effort, not even to try and stick the country back together again, but to at least get some form of dialogue going. There was a meeting in Geneva with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Greek Foreign Minister Georgos Gerapetritis, UK Europe Minister Stephen Doughty, and the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leadership. This was the first time in ages that there's been any sign of movement whatsoever. It was dubbed an “informal meeting” so that people would actually be able to get to the table without having to give up on their starting positions. But we're very much in a different stage now because of everything else going on in the region; it's just about keeping the dialogue open, trying to work on what the Greek Cypriots view as confidence-building measures and what the Turkish Cypriots view as cooperation measures.

Both sides have a completely different view. The current Turkish Cypriot leader, Ersin Tatar, is adamant that we should be going for two internationally recognised states. So he sees this cooperation as being on the way to two separate states. The Greek Cypriot leader, Republic of Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulidis, sees the the confidence-building measures as being a way back to fully fledged negotiations. So even they don't even agree on what they're doing at the moment.

With this recent return to talks, the ambitions are much lower than they were in the past. There is no expectation on either side that they are going to make any progress towards the ultimate solution that they want.

What you get from the Greek Cypriot side is that this is preparation to get back to talks to solve this problem on the basis of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation – the kind of solution mandated by the UN Security Council. But in reality, everybody knows we're not getting back to the table anytime soon, even if there is a change in the Turkish Cypriot leadership, which might happen this October because we've got elections for the Turkish Cypriot presidency in October.

Turkish Cypriot President Tatar was elected in 2020 and he is seen as being very close to the Turkish government. He's been advocating for formal division on the island and that has also become Turkey's official position. Northern Cyprus has in recent years becoming increasingly integrated into the Turkish economy. So is it true that Turkish Cyprus and Turkey are becoming ever more closely integrated?