Salim Çevik on Turkey's Middle East reset

Salim Çevik, German Institute for International and Security Affairs fellow, on his paper "Turkey’s Reconciliation Efforts in the Middle East: Ambitions and Constraints in a Changing Regional Order"

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We're now a few years into Turkey's bid to normalise relations with a range of regional rivals. Where does that broader rapprochement bid stand? Has it been successful or not, from Ankara's perspective?

The results are mixed. I think that's not surprising to anyone, including the government in Ankara, because Turkey's reconciliation efforts are part of a more region-wide reset that followed the upheaval of the Arab uprisings. We witnessed the Abraham Accords, the end of the Qatar blockade, Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, and other developments. This forced Turkey into a feeling of being more isolated in the region. When we say "isolated in the region", it's not only in the Middle East, it's also an isolation that encompasses the East Mediterranean. This was also combined with Turkey's economic problems and how foreign policy kind of undermined Turkey's economic potential. So Turkey initiated this reconciliation process by hoping to get out of this isolation and hoping that better, more friendly relations with its neighbors would help economic growth.

In both the diplomatic and economic dimensions, the results have been mixed. Turkey received substantial economic help from the Gulf, particularly from the UAE, but it is so far at least below Ankara's expectations. Many promises have been given, but it's kind of common for Gulf countries to throw out big numbers; it's also part of the PR process. We are yet to see to what extent these numbers will materialise.

When it comes to a breakthrough of its diplomatic isolation, I think Ankara has come a long way. Relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emiratis are already fully diplomatically normalised. But that doesn't mean that there aren't significant geopolitical disagreements between these countries, particularly with Egypt over Libya. So I would say the result is mixed.